Picking a good private credit option

By Jayson Forrest

Alex Ramsay (Infradebt), Theo Calligeris (Realm Investment House), and Tom Schubert (Drummond Capital Partners) share their insights into how they’re thinking about portfolio construction when picking a good private credit option.

The team at Drummond Capital Partners is just as passionate about managed accounts as it is about private markets and bringing these assets to the private wealth sector. This year, Drummond launched a quarterly liquid managed account, which focuses on allocations to private equity and private credit. 

insights into portfolio construction when picking a good private credit option

Alex Ramsay
Infradebt

Alex Ramsay is Co-founder and Investment Director at Infradebt

Theo Calligeris
Realm Investment House

Theo Calligeris is Portfolio Manager at Realm Investment House

Sam Ruiz
T. Rowe Price

Sam Ruiz is a Portfolio Specialist at T. Rowe Price

In allocating to private markets, Tom Schubert — Managing Partner/Portfolio Manager at Drummond Capital Partners — says the business has reviewed 70 private credit managers and screened out almost half of these over the last 12 months. Currently, Drummond only uses four of these managers, with a few others short-listed for possible future inclusion.

In making the case for private credit, Tom believes it’s an attractive asset class to be invested in. The market has grown 16.1 per cent since 2015 and has a value of US$1.7 trillion (as at 2023). This growth has largely been attributed to the banks stepping back from riskier and more complex lending (post-GFC), as a result of tighter regulation and higher capital requirements, with private credit stepping in to fill the void.

“Demand for yield has seen a lot of investor interest in private credit,” says Tom. “Credit spreads in this asset class are quite attractive relative to their public market equivalents, so there is a good liquidity premium available for investors.”

Unlike public markets, manager performance in private markets tends not to ‘mean revert’ (top quartile stays top quartile). So, you could say, past performance is a good indicator of future performance in private markets

Tom Schubert

Do your due diligence

Speaking on private credit at the 2024 IMAP Independent Thought Conference, Tom says as a result of some significant super fund failings locally in private markets, ASIC is looking to review this sector from a governance and regulatory perspective, which will impact manager selection.

“Having reviewed many global private credit managers, particularly in the U.S. where this asset class is well established, we’ve found the governance standards in the U.S. are far higher compared to Australia. Better regulation of this sector will be good from an investor outcome perspective, as well as for the sustainability of the sector,” says Tom.

“As allocators, we need to be more aware of the risks in allocating to private credit managers. This means extra due diligence is required when investing in this space.”

When selecting a good private credit manager, Tom says there are a number of key factors to consider, as part of any due diligence process. Some of these include: the importance of manager scale (given the additional work required, and the higher cost of successful origination and execution of deal flow); risk management systems; governance structures; and a proven track record by the manager in private credit.

“Unlike public markets, manager performance in private markets tends not to ‘mean revert’ (top quartile stays top quartile). So, you could say, past performance is a good indicator of future performance in private markets,” he says.

What we’re looking for is stable revenue through the cycle, and that’s what a good infrastructure asset should deliver to you. And most importantly, the asset should have very high operating margins and low operating costs. That enables the entity to service the debt on a long-term basis

Alex Ramsay

Private credit: A diverse universe

As an active Australian fund manager with an absolute return focus investing in Australian credit and fixed income markets, Realm Investment House likes private credit. It is actively involved in the residential mortgage-backed security space, where it partners with major banks to lend money to non-bank lenders (like Athena and Pepper Money), which in turn lend this money onto consumers. Realm aims to help non-bank lenders build up (originate) large enough pools of mortgages to sell into the public market.

According to Theo Calligeris — Portfolio Manager at Realm Investment House — the residential mortgage-backed security space in Australia is a $120 billion market that is actively traded in this part of private credit. The reason why Realm is attracted to this sector is the relatively stable income it provides.

In contrast, as a specialist infrastructure fund manager, Infradebt has a focus on debt-lending to Australian infrastructure projects. Infrastructure debt is primarily asset-backed lending, and Infradebt’s clients range from large institutional investors, through to smaller wholesale investors.

Alex Ramsay — Co-founder and Investment Director at Infradebt — says the business lends to sole-purpose entities that own and operate large physical assets (or have a fixed long-term right to an income stream over a period of time) that have a defined single purpose, like renewables and social infrastructure.  

“What we’re looking for is stable revenue through the cycle, and that’s what a good infrastructure asset should deliver to you. And most importantly, the asset should have very high operating margins and low operating costs. That enables the entity to service the debt on a long-term basis,” says Alex.

You really need to understand the niche that the particular non-bank lender wants to play in. You want to know what kind of loans they want to write, and you want to understand how you can build a transaction that’s going to suit them and the target market they’re aimed at

Theo Calligeris

Managing risks and opportunities

Theo acknowledges that one of the key aspects when assessing a good private credit manager is understanding the complexities that underly each private credit opportunity. This includes managing risks, which he says are different in private credit compared to traditional public market credit options.

“At Realm, across our book, we’re funding about 470,000 underlying mortgages in the Australian system. So, in order to begin looking at each of these underlying mortgages, you have to understand the characteristics of each one,” says Theo.

“The RBA formats a template and that template shows about 151 characteristics against each of those mortgages, and all of those templates update once a month. So, a lot of the workload that gets done in my team is effectively very quantitative. Basically, we look at the underlying mortgages, seeing how they are changing and moving, and try to figure out what type of loans these issuers want to be writing.

“So, when you begin to understand this space more generally, you start to realise that every non-bank lender has its own niche that it wants to play in.” 

As an example, he points to the non-bank lender, Athena, which is focused on very high quality mortgages. It aims to compete with the banks but at 10-20bps cheaper. Whereas the likes of Resimac and Pepper Money are geared to self-employed and SMSF borrowers.

“And looking down the spectrum of lenders, you see the likes of Liberty, La Trobe and Bluestone, which specialise in the non-conforming and non-standard loan space,” says Theo.

“You really need to understand the niche that the particular non-bank lender wants to play in. You want to know what kind of loans they want to write, and you want to understand how you can build a transaction that’s going to suit them and the target market they’re aimed at.”

Additionally, from a manager’s perspective, Theo says it’s also important to understand how these lenders are going to continue to meet their financial covenants, because it’s not just about the underlying pool of assets.

He explains: “You also want to make sure the non-bank lender being funded is a good ongoing concern. This means putting triggers in place like: requiring a certain amount of tangible equity per month; or specific net profit after tax figures. So, there needs to be both financial and portfolio covenants that need to be installed across all those non-bank lenders. By installing these covenants, it allows the manager to control every aspect of the risk.”

In comparison, in terms of Infradebt’s approach to managing risk, Alex refers to ‘batteries’ as an example of a project the business might lend to. Underpinning Infradebt’s lending process for infrastructure projects is a sector paper, which is reviewed by an advisory group. This sector paper focuses on revenues and the cashflows available to service the debt over the life of a particular project.

When looking at batteries, like a Tesla Powerwall, Alex says what Infradebt wants to understand is what the business thinks the battery can earn at each point in time over its life. “So, we’re fundamentally taking a view on the enterprise value of that battery.”

He says this approach matters because it essentially follows Wright’s Law, which observes that as the production volume of an item increases, its costs fall and quality improves more quickly, as the industry learns to enhance the process. 

“Using Wight’s Law, a battery entering the market today will invariably be competing with a cheaper battery in five or 10 years’ time. And that matters because when looking at batteries, we’re looking at a project that has a life of 20-25 years. Forming a view on these projects is fundamental. For each individual project, we have a systemised approach for due diligence and credit execution in relation to any loan.” 

 

There’s a lot more choice in private credit in the United States. It’s a deeper, richer market. More than half of Drummond’s private credit allocation in our portfolio is global, with a definite tilt to the United States

Tom Schubert

Looking offshore

When assessing offshore private credit opportunities, Tom acknowledges that U.S. managers are easier to assess overall. That’s because many of the issues the Australian market has around governance structures, don’t exist in the United States. From that perspective, he believes the private credit market in the U.S. is currently much better regulated.

“There’s a lot more choice in private credit in the United States,” says Tom. “It’s a deeper, richer market. Tier one managers are producing very good quality products, which are widely available and accessible in the United States. More than half of Drummond’s private credit allocation in our portfolio is global, with a definite tilt to the United States.”   

About

Alex Ramsay is Co-founder and Investment Director at Infradebt; and

Theo Calligeris is Portfolio Manager at Realm Investment House.

They were part of a panel discussion on ‘Picking a good private credit option’ at the 2024 IMAP Independent Thought Conference in Melbourne.

The session was moderated by Tom Schubert Managing Partner/Portfolio Manager at Drummond Capital Partners.

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